Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 1.853761 2.462523 3.292484 4.537456 6.413388e+00 9.231647e+00 1.398680e+01
2024-12-22 1.305126 1.984425 3.090030 5.136859 9.128153e+00 1.732871e+01 3.806354e+01
2024-12-29 0.986441 1.679559 2.995480 5.961572 1.348961e+01 3.563218e+01 1.324526e+02
2025-01-05 0.758406 1.422253 2.866285 6.786801 1.985869e+01 7.859735e+01 6.602013e+02
2025-01-12 0.553111 1.114264 2.468541 6.743652 2.488404e+01 1.504811e+02 4.099822e+03
2025-01-19 0.403933 0.860401 2.057166 6.343048 2.895814e+01 2.752330e+02 5.404780e+04
2025-01-26 0.322532 0.729117 1.895906 6.722910 4.010393e+01 7.542848e+02 2.223056e+12
2025-02-02 0.275501 0.663699 1.893766 7.907202 6.673521e+01 4.047429e+03 NaN
2025-02-09 0.242571 0.622249 1.952526 9.736787 1.261056e+02 7.877744e+04 NaN
2025-02-16 0.205929 0.553592 1.868989 10.770177 2.075599e+02 3.198568e+07 NaN
2025-02-23 0.169379 0.469783 1.667230 10.648676 2.813507e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 0.138479 0.392753 1.445331 9.970699 3.407840e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 0.120897 0.357040 1.404858 11.232925 6.686230e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 0.105564 0.323095 1.350580 12.420162 1.375648e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 0.093934 0.298238 1.328439 14.250819 3.634319e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 0.083611 0.274227 1.293768 16.064589 1.125231e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 0.071469 0.238074 1.155012 15.436441 2.027894e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 0.060577 0.203517 1.002699 13.966533 2.745501e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.054002 0.185225 0.947801 14.647197 9.924566e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.050107 0.177206 0.959846 17.452413 3.117341e+06 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.047289 0.172987 0.999044 22.043432 NaN NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.043364 0.162060 0.975482 24.540331 NaN NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.038721 0.146073 0.895524 23.917242 NaN NaN NaN